How much lower will we go? Isn't that the question to which we'd all like the answer.
On my June 24th post I said that I didn't like the absence of strength in the recovery and it looked like we might go lower before we get a real recovery rally underway. Well, it looks like that is what is going on. There's no telling how much lower it will go before it recovers, but it will recover at some point. Should you cash out and wait for a low before buying back in? Maybe, but I'd recommend against it. Most of the time it will recover very quickly and you'll be caught on the sidelines. Then you don't want to buy into a rally so you are waiting for it to crash again so you can get in, and if it doesn't crash you are left out of the recovery. If you aren't in for the recovery you've guaranteed your losses. But, it is your money, you have to decide how much you can take before you want to sit it out for a while and wait for it to stabilize.
In the meantime, let's use this as an educational opportunity for some chart analytics. Here's a snapshot of the current ETH chart. I've put some letters in place so I can reference those points in the paragraph below. This is just to show what I look at and how I would interpret this part of the chart. This is a 30 minute chart, meaning every plot represents 30 minutes of price movement.
Point "A" shows our first "low". You can see it tried to recover, but failed right before "B". It pulled back a little and then when it couldn't go higher the recovery failed and "B" and turned down. We ended up going all the way down to "D". But, notice the volume "C" that happened when we hit "D". There was a LOT more volume at "D" then there had been at "A". That shows a lot more buyers coming in and propping up the price at the D level.
The recovery ran until "E". There was a several hour pullback as the market gained strength and made an attempt to continue the rally. You can see at the 2nd attempt to reach a new rally high, it failed at "F". That started a well known pattern of "lower highs and lower lows". When you see that pattern you know the market is weak and we are going lower. Obviously the inverse is true in a strong market. What we want to see is higher highs and higher lows.
So "G", "H", and "I" all continued the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We'll watch for that pattern to break. When the market finally stops setting lower lows, we'll see it stabilize and make another rally attempt (somewhere around "J"). this time we'll want to see it break out past E &F. If not, it might pull back and gather strength for a few hours or even a few days, but we need it to break out past E/F to give us a real rally.
It is typical of the market to test prior lows. In a "perfect pattern" I would expect it to retest the "D" low, hold there, and begin our big rally out of this hole. In fact I have a buy order in just above the "D" lows, and it is likely a lot of other people do too. That or they might have buy orders just at or just below D. It is ok to break that level slightly, but we don't want to see it break and hold below "D" or we could be going significantly lower. We are already moving sideways at it's current level, so we might not revisit the "D" low. That's fine with me if my order doesn't get filled. I'll use that money for a different purchase during or after the recovery.
Prior to this correction, just by looking at the charts it was easy to see that if it broke below $300, there was really nothing holding it back from going all the way down to $200. There were no prior points of resistance in the $200-$300 range, so it's really no surprise that it has fallen through to $200. That being said, let's hope "D" holds and that becomes our permanent resistance "low" point going forward.
Hang in there. Give it time and let the market do what markets do. They like to shake out all the "weak" hands and only when that has happened is it ready to recover.
On my June 24th post I said that I didn't like the absence of strength in the recovery and it looked like we might go lower before we get a real recovery rally underway. Well, it looks like that is what is going on. There's no telling how much lower it will go before it recovers, but it will recover at some point. Should you cash out and wait for a low before buying back in? Maybe, but I'd recommend against it. Most of the time it will recover very quickly and you'll be caught on the sidelines. Then you don't want to buy into a rally so you are waiting for it to crash again so you can get in, and if it doesn't crash you are left out of the recovery. If you aren't in for the recovery you've guaranteed your losses. But, it is your money, you have to decide how much you can take before you want to sit it out for a while and wait for it to stabilize.
In the meantime, let's use this as an educational opportunity for some chart analytics. Here's a snapshot of the current ETH chart. I've put some letters in place so I can reference those points in the paragraph below. This is just to show what I look at and how I would interpret this part of the chart. This is a 30 minute chart, meaning every plot represents 30 minutes of price movement.
Point "A" shows our first "low". You can see it tried to recover, but failed right before "B". It pulled back a little and then when it couldn't go higher the recovery failed and "B" and turned down. We ended up going all the way down to "D". But, notice the volume "C" that happened when we hit "D". There was a LOT more volume at "D" then there had been at "A". That shows a lot more buyers coming in and propping up the price at the D level.
The recovery ran until "E". There was a several hour pullback as the market gained strength and made an attempt to continue the rally. You can see at the 2nd attempt to reach a new rally high, it failed at "F". That started a well known pattern of "lower highs and lower lows". When you see that pattern you know the market is weak and we are going lower. Obviously the inverse is true in a strong market. What we want to see is higher highs and higher lows.
So "G", "H", and "I" all continued the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We'll watch for that pattern to break. When the market finally stops setting lower lows, we'll see it stabilize and make another rally attempt (somewhere around "J"). this time we'll want to see it break out past E &F. If not, it might pull back and gather strength for a few hours or even a few days, but we need it to break out past E/F to give us a real rally.
It is typical of the market to test prior lows. In a "perfect pattern" I would expect it to retest the "D" low, hold there, and begin our big rally out of this hole. In fact I have a buy order in just above the "D" lows, and it is likely a lot of other people do too. That or they might have buy orders just at or just below D. It is ok to break that level slightly, but we don't want to see it break and hold below "D" or we could be going significantly lower. We are already moving sideways at it's current level, so we might not revisit the "D" low. That's fine with me if my order doesn't get filled. I'll use that money for a different purchase during or after the recovery.
Prior to this correction, just by looking at the charts it was easy to see that if it broke below $300, there was really nothing holding it back from going all the way down to $200. There were no prior points of resistance in the $200-$300 range, so it's really no surprise that it has fallen through to $200. That being said, let's hope "D" holds and that becomes our permanent resistance "low" point going forward.
Hang in there. Give it time and let the market do what markets do. They like to shake out all the "weak" hands and only when that has happened is it ready to recover.
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