Skip to main content

Sell the News, or is this just the beginning of our long strange trip?

Bitcoin (BTC) is back at it's highs today.  Tomorrow is FDay for BTC - Fork Day.

Why is BTC at it's highs the day before the fork?  Is this a case of buy the rumor and sell the news?  Or, is this a case of the market showing satisfaction that the fork process is expected to go well and the BTC price is about to explode to the upside?

There's a well know saying in trading of "Buy the rumor, Sell the news".  It has proven itself to be true over and over again.  Very often good news is already figured into the price of an equity and when that good news actually becomes true, the equity then drops because the anticipation of the event has passed.

Is that the case now with BTC?  Should we be looking to sell BTC as soon as the fork is implemented on Aug 1st, 2017 at 7:20 AM CT?  Or, is the price being held back by the fork and once the fork goes smoothly it is going to take off.

To make things more difficult there is an alternate explanation for the current high price of BTC.  One that makes a lot of sense to me.  When the fork happens, if you own any BTC you will get an equivalent amount of a new coin called Bitcoin Cash (BCC) for free.  Just for owning BTC you'll get the BCC.  But, the catch is you have to own BTC in the first place.

That means a lot of people have been selling off their ALT coins and using that money to acquire as much BTC as they can.  Naturally this increased demand has driven up the price of BTC and it has killed the price of almost every Alt coin.  This is exactly what we are seeing now, BTC at an all-time high and Alt coins at major Lows.

I believe BTC remains in both a short term and a long term Bullish channel.  I think this might just be an early stop on the long trip that BTC has to much higher prices.  But I also believe Alt coins are at a "fabricated" low because of the need to own BTC at the time of the Fork.  I don't know if we'll see BTC take off or retrace after the fork has passed, but I do think we'll see Alt coin prices sore again as they were doing for the weeks and months before the late June / early July correction.

Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure and that is the next 24 hours is going to be interesting.

Comments

  1. Josh JarniganMay 2, 2018 at 11:03 PM

    Nice blog. The current trust networks face a variety of issues. Poor privacy protection, untapped data value, data management monopolization, and ineffective identity authentication are all opportunities for blockchain. Ontology seems to resolve these issues with its solid trust ecosystem. For more information visit: NeonBeginner

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Troubleshooting a Discourse Update on DigitalOcean: Resolving Unresolvable Errors

For the past three years, I've maintained a Discourse server on a DigitalOcean Droplet. Recently, I decided to update it with some of the latest Discourse features. What I anticipated to be a straightforward update process turned into several days of frustrating setbacks. The version of Discourse I was running was already three years old, so I assumed that running the built-in "Update" feature would suffice. However, after clicking the update button, the progress bar sluggishly crawled forward over the next half hour, only to display the dreaded message: "Error – Update Failed." The logs provided little to no help, but based on my experience with other software updates via GIT, I suspected that the failure might be due to the repository head still being called "Master." In recent years, there has been a shift away from using "Master" as the repository head, with "Main" becoming the preferred term. Despite trying several methods ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Ethereum Merge - So What?

Artwork by Steven Grundy The long awaited Ethereum "Merge" is finally upon us.  I've heard people say "So what".   So what?  I think they don't understand the implications of the merge.  Either that or they really are betting against Ethereum. I think this upgrade is probably the biggest thing for Ethereum since smart contracts first came out.  This change has the possibility of upsetting the apple cart in terms of Ethereum and BTC.  That's a big claim, but I really think it's possible. The Ethereum Merge has been set for the week of September 19th, 2022.  The merge is when the Ethereum execution layer will be joined with the new proof of stake consensus layer.  What does that mean and why should I care? What it means is that Ethereum will be changing from an energy intensive Crypto coin like all others to a 99% more efficient crypto coin like only a few have done.  Right now Ethereum is mined just like BTC and a host of other Crypto cur...
Post a Comment
Read more

Yelp api via Coldfusion and oAuth

What should have been a fairly easy implementation turned into several frustrating hours. I was using the old Yelp API that is accessed simply by passing your yelp key in the url. But, I wanted to take advantage of some of the new functionality only available in their API version 2.0. Unfortunately Yelp API v2 requires an oAuth key/signature type access. Having already written similar code to access the Amazon web services with a signature I thought this would be a simple as reusing some existing code. Man was I wrong. Turns out a "correctly" implemented version of oAuth is much less tolerant than AWS is. Simple things, such as what characters in the URL must be encoded, invalidated the Yelp signature. After much searching and screwing around with various proposed implementations it became clear that the easiest and best implementation was to use the Java library provided by Yelp and simply access it from Coldfusion. To make this process easier I've consolidated th...
Read more